Fundamentals begin to slide toward Staten Island’s Favor and Away From The Jersey Shore
Summer's market comes to an end: Staten Island (Richmond County) and Jersey Shore (Ocean and Monmouth County) Market Report: October 2022
With mortgage rates now arching toward 7%, the feds have tampered demand for housing in the US. But each market tells a different story.
Staten Island home prices recovered somewhat from their historic decline between August and September. We witnessed the largest monthly price drop in history for Richmond County, with home prices falling over $55,000 during this short time period. But the average sale price came back up by about $18,000 to reach $707,820 in October. Not bad, especially when you consider the trend line is still moving up overall.
On the Jersey Shore, home prices have somewhat stabilized as of late. The average home now sells for $575,277. The price has remained about the same for the past three months, down slightly from its record high in June of $596,882. This is up by about $20,000 from last year, or about 4%. In Staten Island, the average sale price is up 8% since September 2021's $654,893.
Active listings also tell an interesting story. In Staten Island, there are currently 1,823 active listings on the market. They have remained steady for three months now; seasonally adjusted, they should be declining as fall approaches. This figure is up by 68 properties over the same time last year. New listings and sold listings are also down over last year, at 12% and 18% respectively.
Inventory on the Jersey Shore follows a similar pattern. In Monmouth and Ocean Counties combined, sales are down 11% year over year to 1,980. New listings are down 8% since last year to 2,276. Active listings are down about 6% over last year to 3,083 for both counties together.
Price changes have actually shown improvement in the seller’s favor though. Price changes were increasing for homes in both markets until recently, where it has stabilized in the Jersey Shore and began to decrease in Staten Island.
However, the sold-to-list price ratio has fallen by a full percentage point in both markets. On the Jersey Shore, homes are still clearing 100% of their list price but have fallen from 101.8 in August to 100.8 in September. One year ago, the average home fetched 102.3% of list price. In Staten Island, SP/LP fell from 99.1 in August to 98.2 in September, matching September 2021's figure. This means that sellers are accepting lower offers but without lowering their prices as much.
One marked difference between the two markets though is days on the market. Staten Island homes have fallen to an amazing 57 days for the average home sale, down 21% over last year’s 72. Because of legal processes, homes close much slower in New York than they do in New Jersey. Monmouth and Ocean county homes have been closing in just over three weeks for awhile now.
If current trends continue, prices will fall slightly in both markets as inventory steadily rises. Builders have been slow to start new construction, so we should not expect home prices to plummet in either market. Fundamentals remain much stronger than they were in 2008.
