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Many buyers are hoping for a fall in prices while mortgage rates rise, but they might be disappointed.

While sales are down across the country, newly listed properties are down quite a bit as well. Housing starts have lagged behind, reaching a year and a half low. And with interest rates still on the rise, builders are not likely to become energized anytime soon.

The average 30-year mortgage rate is now up to 7%. According to Yahoo Finance, the average mortgage premium is $965 higher than it was one year ago on a median-priced home. Mortgage applications are down 41% since last year, and refinance applications have plummeted 85% from a year ago. But with a shortage of available housing, even high mortgage rates probably will not slow the…

Summer's market comes to an end: Staten Island (Richmond County) and Jersey Shore (Ocean and Monmouth County) Market Report: October 2022

With mortgage rates now arching toward 7%, the feds have tampered demand for housing in the US. But each market tells a different story.

Staten Island home prices recovered somewhat from their historic decline between August and September. We witnessed the largest monthly price drop in history for Richmond County, with home prices falling over $55,000 during this short time period. But the average sale price came back up by about $18,000 to reach $707,820 in October. Not bad, especially when you consider the trend line is still moving up overall.

On the Jersey Shore, home prices have somewhat…

We all knew it couldn’t last, so here it is: US real estate’s wild sellers market is coming to an end.

That being said, your local market has a big impact on where home values are headed. An area with strong economic fundamentals (like New York) is likely to fare much better than an overvalued market (like Phoenix or Boise). The Jersey Shore market is a bit unique as it is connected to (and benefitting from) the NYC metro area.

In Staten Island, home prices dropped more than we have ever seen them drop in a single month- over $50,000. The average home now sells for $689,747. In July, Staten Island homes averaged $743,320. In New Jersey’s Monmouth and Ocean Counties, the price remained almost exactly the same, at just $581,000 for both…

2021 was a historic year for real estate. Pandemic boom towns brought remote workers out to the suburbs, starting bidding wars that brought home prices to record highs.

Our two main markets, Staten Island and The Jersey Shore, are attractive for buyers leaving New York City. Combine this trend with the lowest borrowing rates in a lifetime, add in constrained new construction inventory, and this past year was a roller coaster to say the least!

Across the US, new construction has not kept up with shrinking inventory. Supply constraints pushed up home prices nationwide. But each market is different, as we found when serving clients in the New York Metro area and the Jersey Shore area.

Year Over Year Comparison:

Home Sale Price

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Based on the low number of closed sales and increased listing prices, it seems the real estate market has leveled off more than sellers are willing to accept.

Like last month, we again saw a 19% drop in home sales over the same time last year. April 2019 came in with just 272 home sales compared to 336 in April 2018. Active inventory is up 21% since last year, rising from 1,749 to 2,119.

Higher available inventory means more seller competition, and therefore lower prices, right? Well no, as it turns out. List prices just keep going up. Newly listed properties averaged $702,613, an almost $40,000 increase over last year’s average of $664,454. The kicker? Homes sold for only $555,891 last month.

With an average list price of $709,109 for all…

(Above: Average sale price climb decelerating over the past two years)

The real estate market continues to level out this month in essentially every measurable way. It’s a far cry from what we saw during the same time last year.

This month’s sales dipped far below what they were last month, setting a new low for the past few years at just 259. Days on the market and cumulative days on the market are each up to a two-year high at 97 and 102 respectively.

We predicted monthly inventory to rise above six months, but did not expect to exceed seven this soon. Month’s inventory was 7.21- also the highest in more than two years. And inventory was up again to 1868, despite new listings actually being down from January.

Average Sale Price…

We're back on the horse for our monthly real estate market discussion for Staten Island! This month was an odd one. Inventory was up but prices were also back to record highs. Normally the supply/demand curve should push prices down when supply is up, so what gives?

To lay things out: the average sale price in October was $582,619, on par with the record high price of $583,210 from June 2018. Yet inventory has plateued for six months straight around the 2,000 mark. Fewer homes are also selling each month compared with new listings, and sales are way down from last year. New and active listings are up even higher.

It's difficult to make sense of these numbers. But we have to keep in mind that the sample size (377 homes sold) is small- and…